After the global and domestic semiconductor industries experienced active destocking in 2022 and 2023, inventory levels may improve significantly in 2024. Recently, several brokerages released research reports stating that the semiconductor industry is expected to enter an upward cycle this year.

Guo Tao, deputy director of the China E-Commerce Expert Service Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter: "The semiconductor industry cycle is closely related to factors such as inventory levels, market demand and technological development. Memory chips are regarded as the 'barometer of the semiconductor industry'. The price of memory chips will start to rise first in the second half of 2023, which means that the market supply and demand relationship will improve and the industry will enter an upward cycle. The development of the artificial intelligence industry and the recovery of the consumer electronics market will be important factors in promoting the recovery of the semiconductor industry. The combination of the two is expected to inject growth momentum into the semiconductor industry."

The industry shows upward signals

It is reported that the semiconductor industry is a typical cyclical industry with a cycle length of about 4 years. The upward cycle is usually 2 to 3 years, and the downward cycle is usually 1 to 1.5 years. The upward range of this cycle is from the third quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2022, and the downward range is from the second quarter of 2022 to the present.

Several brokerages recently released research reports analyzing the supply and demand relationship of the semiconductor industry, and believe that the semiconductor industry is ushering in a new round of upward cycle. Guojin Securities said: "The active destocking has ended, and the semiconductor industry will show signs of cyclical upward movement in 2024. The overall supply adjustment is in place. With the steady increase in demand, chip prices are expected to bottom out and rise, and the semiconductor industry chain is about to open an upward channel."